I was requested to publish the analysis on Arash's interview that Neshor made on the KDS forums. So here goes:
Neshor wrote:
I'll try to outline the concerns the interview brought up in me. I apologize if I seem like I'm looking for things to critisize. I feel that The Mission being as powerful as they are, all aspects of their ring must be openly spoken of.
Neshor: First, please tell me something about yourself. How old are you? How did you come to create The Mission?
Arash: I am two and a half months old by now. I was originally looking to join the Starcrafters, since they shared my goals and views. They were nowhere to be found however, so myself and a few others decided to create a ring that was built upon our original mission here. And so we did. That was nearly two months ago now.
N: What was the founding date of The Mission?
A: In Pre-Da Vinci terms, it was the 7th of May that The Mission was formed.
So, he was a week old, at most, when he decided what the fate of the community would be. And even though his plans have become more detailed during the time here, I've seen no indication of them giving the goals them a second thought. True, he probably thought a lot about it during his speedtraining, but still he could in no way have had sufficient information to base his decision on at the time he created the ring.
This seems to apply to many other rings too, I fear. But luckily, not all of them have equally far reaching plans right after their leaders have been awakened.
N: Please describe your ring in you own words. The values it is based on. Its goals and dreams and such.
A: The Mission is based on a dream of terraforming and exploration, of bringing the first humans successful to the stars and colonize Da Vinci. We believe in the original mission, that was to launch a seedship, establish a base here, and let TAU terraform with help from us, so that we in time will be able to create a civilization here. Then, we wish to in turn send out our own seedship and carry on the spread of humanity into the stars. We believe we have a great duty to the humans back on Earth who made this possible, and we believe in seeing it through. One day, I dream of meeting our brothers on Earth and proudly be able to say that we did it, we completed the mission and terraformed a planet. Of course, there are a lot of steps and smaller goals to realize before we get there, but these are our overall goals. We all dream of seeing Da Vinci become green.
Fair enough, I fully agree terraforming is a beautiful dream, well worth working toward. But I can also imagine good life without it. Had TAU not fed us with images of green fields with blossoming flowers, we wouldn't know to miss it, and could live our lives in content, instead of constantly dreaming.
Of course, the current situation needs fixing. But I'm fairly certain other means to make our lives better can are also possible. One can lead a perfectly good life in an underground colony, for instance.
I'm not sure I agree with the ultimate goal of looking good in the eyes of the Eartherns either.
N: Do you have any more detailed plans on how to finish the terraforming? A time estimate perhaps?
A: We have published a roadmap, detailing our plans and the steps we think need to be taken. However, there are many steps, and we are just at the beginning of all. Without access to laboratories, an outside research base, geological surveys, launching of satellites, not to speak of repairing TAU, there can be no real effective terraforming we believe. Therefore, giving you a time estimate would be impossible at this stage. This is no small task, it is the most momentous, most massive task humanity has ever tried to achieve.
N: Indeed, it is a humongous, difficult task. How good would you think the chances of its success are? No percentages asked, of course, just a general feeling.
A: My general feeling is that this is indeed achievable. I see no impossible roadblocks ahead in this. We can succeed at this if we put our hearts and mind to it. After all, everything here is geared towards that, and here we are, ready to work towards it. No, it is achievable and I hopw I will be alive to see it happen.
I'd really like to hear what he bases the opinion of "achievability" on. I mean, faith and perseverance can move mountains, but we're talking about a planet here. He admits he's at the beginning of it all, and at the next quote speaks of needing to do extensive research on terraforming. Yet he seems to know exactly what that research will reveal, or more precisely, won't. Of course he can't see any impossible roadblocks on the way - he hasn't even started looking for them, and I fear he never will.
To create the world Arash is aiming for, an incredible number of attributes must be set right, from climate and air composition to microfauna and vegetation. And most of these factors affect each other in a myriad of ways. It's not like building a house one brick at a time, it's more like building a house of cards in a storm. After all, it took Earth several billion years, through trial and error, to become what it's now.
N: However, I've heard arguments that the problems thus far would indicate that the original terraforming plan was flawed. And this is the first time ever this is tried. Does The Mission hava a contingency plan, in case, despite our best efforts, the task should prove impossible?
A: Oh, we also believe the original terraforming plan was flawed. One thing are unforeseen occurrences that have not helped, but of course it would be nearly impossible for humans lightyears away who have never tried this before, to come up with a perfect plan. Se we need adjustments, minor and major ones we think. It will take a lot of work and research to achieve this. If you are asking me for a hypothetical situaltion, where we once disciver that it is totally impossible to terraform Da Vinci, then I'd have to say that we will see when, or rather if we get there, what our options could be. As it is now, however, there is no rational nor scientific fact that speaks against the possibility of terraforming - if we make sure we do it right.
This is good news, I believe, about the original plans. I had feared The Mission would try to put TAUs original programming back on track without carefully investigating all of its aspects. This is one of the things I'm talking about adjusting my views in the end.
However, the fact that they're going to try terraforming until it's proven "totally impossible" (I admit, my wording as well), worries me again. Since few things can be proven impossible, no matter how slim the odds.
N: You've stated that you believe our best bet is to use TAU to achieve the terraforming. How did you come to the conclusion that TAU would still be cabable of performing its function?
A: Well, look behind me, there is a depiction of TAU. Originally four kilometers in height, now only three and severely malfunctioning. Yet thos three kilometers are full of terraforming machinery, data and plans. We need to repair and restore TAU, and gain full access to all its data and functions. From there, when we have more data about Da Vinci, we can adjust and start the real terraforming. It seems to me the sensible route. To build on that which is already there. After all, we hardly have the resources for other projects on the scale of TAU, nor is there a reason not to use TAU. Afterall, that is what it is created for, and by all accounts, it can be made to work too. We believe it will be the best and quickest way to achieve the terraforming.
No problem here. It would be my guess as well that the best resources for terraforming are those that were meant to be used that way. Nova Gaia's ideas of using plants are worth investigating as well, of course, and I don't see much conflict between the two views.
N: Tell me then, how do you picture Da Vinci when you look into the future? The planet, as well as us on it.
A: Not surprisingly, I picture it as a place resembling Earth. Rolling fields, lush forests, snow covered mountains, deep oceans, and teeming with life. As for us, I see us building a clean, democratic society with nature and technology co-exixting and without violent conflicts. TAU has taught us the futility of that, and I really hope we can keep it that way. Those are my dreams for the future, as well as the goal I work forward to, for Da Vinci.
N: How about children? What is your take on that? Will the utopy have those?
A: First, I must correct you, this is not utopia, this is something we have the tools and the will to make happen. And then... yes, of course we think our new world will have children. We should not deny our humanity. There will be a place for children, family and loved ones of course. This is part of what it means being human. We believe in us taking the full step once we finish terraforming. Eating, drinking, procreation, raising children... It is all part of it.
Beautiful dreams, true. But focusing on dreams instead of reality can be dangerous.
N: This, I believe, is related to the fact that your ring is opposed to genetical engineering of humans. Can you tell more about that? How absolute are you about this?
A: Well, it is not necessarily related to that, but since you bring up that topic: Yes, we are opposed to tampering with what makes us human. As it is a hard, philosophical debate to know just what makes us human, we wish to draw the line at any modification of our genes. We wish to remain human and not turn into utopian superbeings who do not age, do not eat and do not raise children, so to speak. Granted these are two extremes, but once you enter that path, there is no telling where you stop. If we once meet our brothers from Earth again, after hundreds or thousands of years, we wish to resemble them, wish to still be human. We do not oppose natural evolution of course, but we do oppose forced evolution.
So... because it would be a hard philosophical debate to know what makes us human, he'd rather just decide on it and make it a fact. "Humanity is based on our genes, end of story." True, his way we would certainly be on the safe side when protecting our humanity (assuming it has any intrinsic value), but if that's what we're after, we'd have to be vary of any kind of advancement. After all, humanity has come a long way from the head-bashing cavemen they once were - much with the help of social development and technology. Maybe we lost our humanity a long time ago.
They also seem to apply a completely different logic to genetic technology as opposed to other fields of science. Following his logic, he should also oppose the light bulb, because electricity may lead to electronics, which may lead to computers, which in turn may lead to self aware artificial intelligences that take over the world in three nanoseconds.
Mind you, I don't advocate jumping headlong into this technology either. But this kind of fanaticism gives me the creeps.
N: Would you use a retrovirus to save a person's life? Or is the natural circle of human life worth dying for? For yourselves? For others?
A: Neshor, earlier I told you we did not want superbeings who did not age. And I told you we were against genetic manipulation. Using a retrovirus is genetic manipulation. So I believe I already answered that question. Yes, we want the natural cycle of humans to continue. Birth, experience, giving birth, dying in time, after a hopefully meaningful life.
Absolutism at its purest. "Didn't you understand, we're against this? Thus, there can be no possible situation where we'd make an exception."
And he talks about the superbeings again. I, however, was talking about nothing more than an adjustment to our immune system, to make it produce some antibodies to fight disease. There's a lot more variance in the human genome naturally - in fact, each of us was born with hundreds of different mutations in our genome, although admittedly, most of them are irrelevant.
N: There are some rings in the Tower, however, who don't see things quite that way. Evolution and KDS included. Are you worried about that? Are you going to do something about that?
A: Why is it dangerous? Surely it is not more dangerous than it being resolved through democratic voting, Neshor? Apart from that, Evolution do not, I think, want to pursue genetic manipulation to the extent you seem to imply - there is no opposition between us and them as it stands. Apart from that, I wish to make it clear that with our knowledge of medicine, it is possible to create cures for possibly all diseases, also by engineering plants for this purpose. You present a fictional case where only genetic manipulation could save the life of a little child. That is an artificial example. Of course TM, as well as all the other rings who oppose genetic manipulation of humans, will be able to create cures for any possible diseases. There is no need for a retrovirus in that regard.
I wonder what "extent" I "implied". I'm fairly sure Evolution would accept using gene therapy to save people's lives.
I apologize for my harsh words, but this arrogance is making me angry. So he's sure we can cure all diseases with our medicine... Right, we've seen that. As far as I know, Rowen is *still* sick, despite our best efforts. Sure, we can probably find a cure at some point - but will he be alive to enjoy it? And had his illness been airborne and lethal we could all be dead by now. True, gene therapy is not a magic cure for all ailments, but it *is* one option among others, and sometimes, quite probably, the only one at the time.
N: It's true that we've been speculating for a while here. Let's get back to some more contemporary topics. Tell me, what is The Mission doing right now? Projects et cetera.
A: Well, of most note for the Tower are two projects we help out in. That is, the fungus investigation and the Chimbot Hijacking Project. As for the fungus, we are working together with the BHSU on analysing it and identifying ways to clean up the infestation. We have already made good headway, and are working as hard as we can on several promising sub-projects there. It is my hope we will have the fungus cleaned up within a reasonable timeframe. As for the CHP, that project is known by most of the Tower, I think, as most of the Tower are either backing it, or actively helping it. As of right now, the production phase of the CHP is nearly finished, although the recent flaws with TAU have delayed this phase.
N: Can you give an example on how you contribute to the fungus project? One of the sub-projects? What is it that The Mission is good at doing?
A: We have been providing the BHSU with equipment and safety gear. Most important in this case is that we have supplied them with Environmental Test Kits. Together, our researchers have collected samples. Right now, we are developing a special microscope to study the gungus in depth, while they are experimenting with amino acids tailored to killing it. As to what we are good at doing: We are very effective organizing things and believe in the importance of all the members working together in unity to help out the whole. This approach has yielded good results, we think.
All right, this is, of course, good. The Mission is an efficient ring indeed, and there's a lot we could learn from them. And they've been mostly good for the Tower thus far. It's the future I'm mostly worried about.
N: How is your ring organized? Hierarchically? Democratically?
A: Apart from the leader and the two handlers who can speak on official TM policy and recruit people, we have several coordinators. Coordinators of repair, production, administration, and coordinators of the investigations and projects we work on. These coordinators are picked by consensus and step forward according to motivation and fields of interest. They then research their fields, are responsible for coordinating our efforts there, and for briefing the rest of the ring. These positions shift as the situation demands. In general, we have a structure where we listen to all concerns and try to reach consensus.
N: How has this been working? Have you been able to find consensus on all important matters? If not, how do you make decicions in those cases? Vote?
A: This has been working very well. We discuss things until consensus has been reached. There has not been any case yet where this did not work. Of course the leader and handlers would have the final say if we could not reach consensus, but so far, that has not happened.
This sounds good, if it indeed is as rosy as he describes. It could be, though, that Arash is practically leading with his personality, his strength of will, and the fact that his views would perhaps be taken as the "official" interpretation of the mission. However, I'm speculating here, and would certainly need more information before confronting them on this.
N: I have one more topic I'd like to discuss. Or, more precisely, to return to the discussion on terraforming: As far as I understand, many methods of terraforming include huge scale events such as throwing ice comets on the surface or other similarly drastic measures. With misfortune, such things could be a risk to the colony. My question is: What level of risk do you believe is acceptable? Do you believe that the advancement of humankind as a whole is worth risking the lives of this entire colony?
A: First off, we do not think we will introduce much additional risk from now on in terraforming. Each step we take from here will be carefully researched, monitored and implemented, if it stands to TM. Before we begin on these things, we need to do a huge work with gathering information. However, we do not think we need to do anything as dangerous as what has already happened. I simply cannot see a situation where we only had one option if we wanted to terraform, and that option would risk our lives. And if it happened, you must remember that we terraform for humankind to have somewhere to live and enjoy their existence on this planet. Risking their lives would run counter to that.
N: So is your answer that you are not willing to take any relevant risks?
A: My answer is, as I think I expressed clearly enough, that there will be no risks of the magnitude you outlined, in regards to successful terraforming.
Right... once again, Arash knows exactly what is involved in the terraforming, even though, according to his own words, they haven't even started the research. Once again, he can't see this situation because he hasn't been looking for it.
I refer back to my allegory of building a house of cards in a storm. I agree with Arash that by careful research and risk analysis we may be able to reduce the risks to an acceptable level. But even as the great advocate of research even I don't believe we can always think of everything. We are talking about increasing the temperature of a planet by tens of degrees Celcius. No risk of unforeseen climatical changes? We're going to release Earth bacteria into the atmosphere by the billions. No risk of them taking a few evolutionary leaps in the new environment and becoming unrecognizable to our immune system? These aren't facts, of course, but I, for one, can think of such situations.
N: Well, that was all I had planned. Is there something you'd like to add as a final comment?
A: Yes. I hope this interview will serve to motivate and inform seedlings. There are many rings who do good and effective work on bringing us forward into this future we must give our all to achieve. The issues we have discussed here are big issues, but I believe that if we loose sight of those, loose sight of the big goals and visions, then the tower would indeed be a bleak place without hope.
I truly agree with Arash on this. I wish it will motivate the seedlings, members of The Mission and the others, to consider and discuss these issues. I also hope the members of The Mission have enough humility to see the errors in their ways when needed.
Soon, when the article has been published, we will start to force these issues into the light of day. Not all at once, but in the course of a hopefully long and meaningful discussion.